سأل مراسل مجلة الإيكونومسيت ولي ولي العهد السعودي، الأمير محمد بن سلمان، حين مناقشة خطته الشاملة للإصلاح للاقتصادي، مؤخراً: "هل هذه  النسخة السعودية لثورة ثاتشر؟"، فأجاب الأمير: "مؤكّد، لدينا العديد من الموارد الثمينة غير المفعّلة؛ كما لدينا قطاعات مميزة قابلة للنمو السريع". ويشير ردّه إلى مختلف الأسباب المحتملة التي دفعت الحكومة نحو الاستثمار بـ 3.5 مليار دولار في «أوبر»، بعد المقابلة بعدد من الأشهر.ـ

Published in Al Arabiya English

Omar al-Ubaydli, an economist and director at the Center for Strategic International and Energy Studies in Bahrain, Saudi’s island neighbor, sees Saudi’s new seat on Uber’s board as a key factor of the deal.

The seat will be occupied by Rumayyan, the Saudi wealth fund’s managing director, who since February last year has also served as an advisor to the royal court.

“Expect Saudi Arabia to benefit from the business experience gained via the board seat to help it launch its own sharing apps tailored to the unique needs of the Saudi economy,” added Ubaydli.

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Published in Bloomberg View

But then I talked to Omar Al-Ubaydli, an economist and program director at the Bahrain Center for Strategic, International and Energy Studies and a research fellow at the Mercatus Center in Virginia. He pointed out that while $3.5 billion is a lot of money for us, and for Uber, it’s almost pocket change for the Saudi government. He sees this as an investment in moving the Saudi economy beyond oil -- a well-documented priority.

“The gulf economies are very strange,” says Al-Ubaydli, himself a Bahraini national. He suggests that putting money into Uber, and taking a board seat, gives them a leg up at building a stronger private sector through similar decentralized applications, allowing Saudis -- particularly women, who are less mobile for cultural and legal reasons -- to begin to move the country beyond its dependence on oil revenue.

It's an odd thought, trying to build up the private sector with a targeted investment from the state wealth manager. But given the strange nature of gulf economies, there’s little alternative.

“The normal principles you’re used to deploying in a traditional economy don’t work," Al-Ubaydli says. "I agree it’s a bit ironic, but trying to shift an economy that’s so dependent on oil, you have to think outside of the box.”

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Published in Investor's Business Daily

But OPEC is actually a “mission impossible,” and for the last 30 years has been perpetuating a myth that it has more power than it actually has, according to Omar Al-Ubaydli, an affiliated senior research fellow at George Mason University’s Mercatus Center.

And the advent of hydraulic fracturing and other new technologies have made producers more responsive to market conditions, with production able to climb in just months, if not weeks, he added.

“Saudi Arabia, the U.S. and Russia are the top three producers,” Al-Ubaydli told IBD. “Two of them are not in OPEC. It’s ridiculous to say you can make a cartel. The plan is dead on arrival.”

Some OPEC members tried to strike a conciliatory tone, with new Saudi Oil Minister Khalid Al-Falih calling the meeting “highly cooperative,” and Iranian counterpart Bijan Namdar Zanganeh saying there was “very good unity.”

When asked if that tone indicated an improved chance for cooperation later, Al-Ubaydli said that was all just posturing.

“The reality is, when you have a large number of geographically dispersed countries, it’s hard to enforce anything, even under ideal conditions,” he said.

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