Published in Investor's Business Daily

But OPEC is actually a “mission impossible,” and for the last 30 years has been perpetuating a myth that it has more power than it actually has, according to Omar Al-Ubaydli, an affiliated senior research fellow at George Mason University’s Mercatus Center.

And the advent of hydraulic fracturing and other new technologies have made producers more responsive to market conditions, with production able to climb in just months, if not weeks, he added.

“Saudi Arabia, the U.S. and Russia are the top three producers,” Al-Ubaydli told IBD. “Two of them are not in OPEC. It’s ridiculous to say you can make a cartel. The plan is dead on arrival.”

Some OPEC members tried to strike a conciliatory tone, with new Saudi Oil Minister Khalid Al-Falih calling the meeting “highly cooperative,” and Iranian counterpart Bijan Namdar Zanganeh saying there was “very good unity.”

When asked if that tone indicated an improved chance for cooperation later, Al-Ubaydli said that was all just posturing.

“The reality is, when you have a large number of geographically dispersed countries, it’s hard to enforce anything, even under ideal conditions,” he said.

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Published in Fox Business

Omar Al-Ubaydli, affiliated senior research fellow at George Mason University’s Mercatus Center, said the meeting’s outcome was 100% predictable and all the bluster about a growing rivalry between Iran, which earlier this year saw relief from international trade sanctions, and Saudi Arabia is a distraction.

The bottom line, he said, is there is no international cartel in any commodity – be it gold, copper, wheat, and even oil. Rather, he contends the swift swoon in oil prices in the summer of 2014 to the recovery crude has made so far this year, is a simple act of market forces.

”The market is bigger than any of these nations,” he said. “There is a large enough number of producers that no one nation is going to do anything to steer prices in one direction. Like any other commodity, there are ups and downs.” 

Al-Ubaydli said while it’s good publicity for OPEC nations to make it seem as though there were active policy negotiations, for the most part, it’s smoke and mirrors.

“Western countries were happy to let OPEC think it had power because they could blame [low prices] on any difficulties. OPEC likes to think it has power because they get to say we’re sticking it to the man, and holding the West by its throat…but ultimately it’s about politics in each country,” he said.

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Published in MarketWatch:

“The most noteworthy point is that the this plan confirms that Saudi Arabia is going to maintain its current policy in oil markets—defending market share and ignoring commercially unwise calls for an output cut,” said Omar Al-Ubaydli, a program director at the Bahrain Center for Strategic, International and Energy Studies.

“Any speculators who were hanging on to the hope that internal and external political pressure would lead the Saudis into a commercial error [output cut] should really consider moving on, and accept that the Saudis are not going to cut output for the benefit of other producers, and at a significant cost to themselves,” he said.

Published in Investor's Business Daily

Novak called Saudi Arabia’s insistence that Iran join in a freeze “unreasonable” and said that he thought a deal in Doha was assured.

But Omar Al-Ubaydli, an affiliated senior research fellow at George Mason University’s Mercatus Center, told IBD earlier that Russia was already “basically producing at capacity.”

Published in Arkansas Democrat-Gazette

"The OPEC meetings will result in nothing of substance," Omar Al-Ubaydli, program director for international and geopolitical studies at the Bahrain Center for Strategic, International and Energy Studies, said in an email.

"Output freezes are of virtually no significance when those committing to them are producing at capacity or close to capacity, which is the case for many oil producers at the moment," he said. "Whenever the stakes are this high, expect a lot of rhetoric from oil producers and analysts as they jockey for position."