I participated in a IISS Manama panel discussion on oil trade security. Chairing the panel was Dr Pierre Noël, Sultan Hassanal Bolkiah Senior Fellow for Economic and Energy Security, IISS. I was joined by Sheikh Mohammed bin Khalifa Al Khalifa, Chief Executive, NOGA Holding, and Dr Jarmo Kotilaine, Chief Economist, Bahrain Economic Development Board.
I spoke for around 15 minutes on how we can use game theory to analyze the likelihood of violent conflict breaking out in Bab Al-Mandab and the Straits of Hurmuz. I concluded that at present, the likelihood is extremely low. I also participated in the Q&A.
Below is a video of the entire event; it starts as the chairman, Dr. Noel, introduces me.
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