Published in the Tyler Morning Telegraph
Trump’s mistake is that he sees a trade deficit as a budget shortfall. Writing in Forbes, Omar Ahmad Al-Ubaydli of George Mason University’s Mercatus Center explains why trade deficits aren’t a big problem.
“America’s trade deficit represents foreigners letting Americans buy more goods than they sell, in exchange for the right to invest in America more than Americans invest abroad - that’s a sign of a thriving economy,” he writes. “In contrast, a struggling economy combined with a trade deficit would send the dollar tumbling, balancing the flow of capital and goods.”
Published in MarketWatch
“The key unknown is the flexibility and competitiveness of the U.S. shale-oil sector,” said Omar Al-Ubaydli, a program director at the Bahrain Center for Strategic, International and Energy Studies. “Until U.S. shale oil technology progress stabilizes, if at all, the key threat to OPEC will remain shrouded in mystery.”
Published on MarketWatch
In the absence of shale oil, Omar Al-Ubaydli, a program director at the Bahrain Center for Strategic, International and Energy Studies, said he believes oil producers would agree to extend the output cut deal.
But if the extension is secured, U.S. shale-oil will continue to expand, he said.
“I believe that [OPEC has] underestimated the positive reaction from shale oil, and that in light of this, I would say the likelihood of an extension is around 40%, heading downward,” said Al-Ubaydli
Still, “in an attempt to maintain market confidence, rather than doing ‘no deal’, they may do a reworked deal to project unity,” he said.
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