Published on Al Arabiya
The shockwaves from the Brexit vote to both the UK and the European Union member states could mean give Gulf states an opportunity to sign better trade deals with both, said Omar al-Ubaydli, an economist and director at the Center for Strategic, International and Energy Studies in Bahrain.
“The EU and UK are going to be under greater economic pressure than before, meaning that if the GCC countries play their cards right they can get more favorable terms in economic deals, such as trade and investment agreements,” Ubaydli said.
هل ينبغي أن يكون اجتماع أوبك الـ 169، الذي انعقد في بداية شهر يونيو، آخر اجتماع للمنظمة؟ قال وينستون تشرشل، رئيس الوزراء البريطاني الأسبق: "للتحسين ينبغي التغيير؛ وللتفوق ينبغي دوام التغيير"، في الوقت الراهن، ربما يفضَّل لدول مجلس التعاون أن ترسم استراتيجيتها النفطية على أساس خليجي حصرياً، وبعيداً عن توترات وعرقلة أوبك.ـ
Published on KTRH Radio
So far, the best economic experts can do is tell investors to buckle up for what could be a bumpy ride ahead. "Gold is probably the only thing that's going to be going up in the near term, for the simple reason that there's going to be a big amount of uncertainty for the foreseeable future," says Omar Ahmad Al-Ubaydli, senior research fellow at the Mercatus Center at George Mason University. He tells KTRH that the effects of the Brexit vote will be far-reaching. "Now, there is a serious threat that the United Kingdom will disintegrate and the European Union will disintegrate, and the repercussions for investment, global trade and finance are all negative," says Al-Ubaydli.
British Prime Minister David Cameron has pledged to step down by this fall and allow a new leader to oversee Britain's transition out of the EU. That negotiation between Britain and the EU will have a big impact on the global markets. "The European Union will want to play hardball and try to make (leaving) look as undesirable as possible, while at the same time the U.K. will try to get as good a deal as possible," says Al-Ubaydli. He predicts that transition will also have major geo-political implications. "NATO will be in disarray as well, because all of the existing treaties will have to be revised, and the economic resources of the European Union which were already weak and declining, are going to be declining at an even greater rate now."
Published in Investor's Business Daily
Advances in drilling will help continue the success that U.S. companies have seen over the last five years, said Omar Al-Ubaydli, an affiliated senior research fellow at George Mason University's Mercatus Center.
New technology can also lead to more gradual moves in the price of oil, instead of wild swings, as shale is more nimble than conventional production, he added.
يقول مارك توين: "كلّما تقلّ المبرّرات لدى تقليد ما، كلّما يصعب التخلّص من هذا التقليد". ويشكّل الدعم للسلع في دول مجلس التعاون تقليداً من الصعب جداً تبريره؛ إذاً ربما هناك دور للمبدأ الذي ذكره مارك توين في تفسير بعض التحدّيات التي واجهتها الحكومات الخليجية خلال محاولاتها خفض الدعم. وتُقدّم الانحيازات في طريقة تفكير البشر عوائق إضافية أمام أصحاب القرار عند إجراء إصلاحات في نظام الدعم.ـ
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