Published on Marketplace.org
For one, struggling Petro-states could benefit from sending key signals to domestic audiences back home. "The citizens are wondering, 'there must be something you can do,'" said Omar al-Ubaydli, international studies director of the Bahrain Center for Strategic International and Energy Studies and affiliated professor of economics at George Mason University. "So, just like when you get a crisis in any country, it's not acceptable for the government to look like it's doing nothing. So they have to at least look like they are doing something." And he said it's important to keep signaling to the market that prices are going up and may continue to. The price of crude has risen for three months now, from less than $30 a barrel to more than $40.
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Quotation: Still-mighty OPEC tries to maintain oil’s recent price gains, considers freezing output"4/15/2016 Published in Financial Post
“This plan that involves all these producers working together is dead on arrival,” said Arlington-based Omar Al-Ubaydli, program director for international and geopolitical studies at the Bahrain Centre for Strategic International and Energy Studies. Al-Ubaydli said the meeting is no more than “political grandstanding,” especially since many oil exporters, stung by anemic economies since the oil price collapse, must allay their citizens’ concerns. “It’s much more about the governments involved showing their citizens that they are trying to raise oil prices, and that the blame for falling oil prices doesn’t lie with them,” he said. Published on MarketWatch:
“The primary motivation for Saudi Arabia and others to continue acting as if these meetings will have a tangible effect is that they are grandstanding for their constituents; they want to show them that they are trying, but that it is external forces that are preventing them from securing high oil prices,” said Omar Al-Ubaydli, a program director at the Bahrain Center for Strategic, International and Energy Studies. He believes that the recent rise in oil prices is “far more reflective of fundamentals,” which include decreased oil investment and pressure on U.S. production, rather than any “supposed coordination among oil producers.” If prices jump after the meeting, “it will be mostly reflective of short-term speculation, and will peter back down to what market fundamentals would predict shortly thereafter,” said Al-Ubaydli. Published in Investor's Business Daily
But a freeze, no matter how many countries join, won’t have a real, fundamental impact on prices, said Omar al-Ubaydli, an affiliated senior research fellow at George Mason University’s Mercatus Center. “Russia is basically producing at capacity, so a freeze doesn’t really mean anything,” he told IBD. “It just means they aren’t going to invest in increasing their capacity. That’s already something that’s financially unwise to do. So it’s all show and politics and grandstanding.” While there might be a little spike or dip after the Doha meeting, it won’t set the stage for a quota system in the future, Al-Ubaydli said. Published in US News النسخة العربية أدناه Residents of the Middle East are used to attracting the derision of the rest of the globe's inhabitants with their outlandish conspiracy theories. Local governments' tendency to offer limited justifications for their policy decisions inadvertently contributes to cloak-and-dagger speculation about unremarkable phenomena. Since July 2014, in the domain of oil analysis, the conspiracy theory shoe has switched to the other foot. In an attempt to explain the 70 percent decline in oil prices, leading media outlets have taken to publishing analyses awash with bizarre theories about the root cause. Continue تعوّد سكّان الشرق الأوسط على الاستهزاء بالآخرين؛ بخصوص نظرياتهم حول مؤامرات عجيبة. ويعود حبّهم للتوهّم حول حتى أبسط الأمور – جزئياً - إلى ثقافة تنفيذ السياسات الحكومية في الشرق الأوسط، دون إبداء أيّ تبرير أو تعليق ملحوظ، من الجهات المسؤولة.
ولكن في الفترة ما بعد يوليو 2014 انتقلت ظاهرة حب نظريات المؤامرات- في مجال تحليل أسواق النفط - إلى بقية دول العالم؛ حيث إنّ وكالات الأنباء العالمية - في محاولتها لتحليل وتفسير هبوط سعر النفط، بما يزيد عن 70% - نشرت نظريات عجيبة، غريبة، عن الأسباب الحقيقية لما جرى.ـ |
Omar Al-Ubaydli
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