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Article: "Should the China-US trade dispute worry Gulf countries?"

5/23/2019

Published in AlArabiya

US President Donald Trump has been ratcheting up the pressure on China in the Sino-American trade war, with the latest salvo being an increase of tariffs on $200bn of Chinese goods from 10 percent to 25 percent. This follows a robust list of measures unveiled in 2018, which led to both Chinese retaliation and the initiation of formal bilateral negotiations to resolve the dispute.

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Article: "Why are investors so interested in Saudi Arabia?"

4/28/2019

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Published in AlArabiya

The New York Times editorial board recently published an editorial bemoaning corporations’ continued interest in investing in Saudi Arabia. The article highlighted a few reasons for Saudi Arabia’s attractiveness to foreign capital, but provided little context to those reasons, which may be why the board remains puzzled. Here is a little more on what makes Saudi Arabia eye-catching to foreign investors.

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Article: "How big a deficit should the Saudi Arabian government run?"

4/18/2019

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Published in Al Arabiya

Saudi Arabia is planning on operating a fiscal deficit of approximately $35 billion (just over five percent of GDP) for the year 2019. Once it has issued the debt required for funding this deficit, Saudi Arabia’s public debt should rise to around 22 percent of GDP. This low figure means that the government has the option of running an even larger fiscal deficit. Conversely, it could choose to tighten its belt aggressively and balance its budget well in advance of its 2023 target. Which option is best?

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Article: "Bahrain’s Path to a Balanced Budget"

4/10/2019

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Published in AGSIW's Blog

In October 2018, Bahrain launched its Fiscal Balance Program aiming to achieve a balanced budget by the end of 2022, with the assistance of three Gulf partners – Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates. Many natural resource-dependent countries – including those in the Gulf – have tried to restructure government finances in the wake of falling commodity prices, with little success. However, various indicators suggest that Bahrain’s current efforts are likely to bear fruit.

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Article: "Should the government stop the Uber-Careem acquisition deal?"

4/4/2019

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Published in AlArabiya

In late March 2019, the global ride-hailing giant Uber announced its acquisition of its Middle-Eastern competitor, Careem, for $3.1 bln, subject to antitrust approval by the countries in which the companies operate. The elimination of Uber’s most important competitor in the region brings with it the threat of abuse of market power, and a resultant increase in prices.

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Article: "Should the China-US trade dispute worry Gulf countries?"

Article: "Why are investors so interested in Saudi Arabia?"

Article: "How big a deficit should the Saudi Arabian government run?"

Article: "Bahrain’s Path to a Balanced Budget"

Article: "Should the government stop the Uber-Careem acquisition deal?"

Omar Al-Ubaydli

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