Published on MarketWatch
Omar Al-Ubaydli, a program director at the Bahrain Center for Strategic, International and Energy Studies, singled out two scenarios. “Either they agree on each country producing optimally from its own perspective, and they will present it as if it is a collective agreement…or they will try to agree on something substantive and fail,” he said.
In both cases, he expects to see only a “negligible effect” on prices as “oil markets are getting a little wiser to OPEC’s ineffectiveness and window-dressing.”
Still, Al-Ubaydli, does see a downside price risk. “Trump is likely to enact policies that decrease U.S. oil imports,” he said. And a rise in shale oil production means that “prices above $60 a barrel are unlikely.”
That said, “Trump’s policies will have an effect once their precise details are confirmed,” said Al-Ubaydli. “Everyone is holding their breath.”
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